It is against this background that this paper seeks to have a relook at the Indus Waters Treaty. That the Treaty has been in force for nearly 45 years is a considerable period for making an appraisal whether the Treaty really served the larger purpose of bringing India-Pakistan amity and cooperation on other fronts.
Though the Indus basin is known to have practised irrigation since ancient times, it were the British who developed and elaborate network of canals in the Indus system of rivers. However, their emphasis was that lands belonging to the Crown received such irrigation so that the British Indian government would earn revenue from water cess as well as from the sale of crown waste lands.7 In this manner, the Indus system water were used to irrigate annually about 23.4 million acres in the Indus plains and 2.6 million acres above the rim stations before partition.8
Partition and its aftermath
Immediate aftermath of the partition of the Indian sub-continent
and the creation of two Dominions of India and Pakistan in 1947 was
that bulk of the irrigation canals developed on the Indus system went
to Pakistan. Out of 26 million acres of land irrigated annually
by the Indus canals, 21 million acres lay in Pakistan and only 5
million acres in India.9
As per the 1941 census, the population dependent on the Indus system
waters was 25 million in Pakistan and 21 million in India.10
Besides, India had
"another 35 million acres of lands crying out for irrigation from the
Indus basin sources".11
Thus the partition gave independent India much less undeveloped area
inspite of the fact that it was an upsteam country with control over
Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, Jhelum and Chenab. India had not only to
cater to the food requirements of 21 million people but also those
millions who migrated from irrigated areas in West Punjab and
Bahawalpur, now in Pakistan, all of whom were dependent on the Indus
waters.
The dispute over sharing of Indus waters
came to fore immediately after partition because the existing canal
headworks of Upper Bari Doab Canal UBDC and Sutlej Valley canals fell
in India State of East Punjab, while the lands being irrigated by
their waters fell in Pakistan West Punjab and Bahawalpur State. In
order to maintain and run the existing systems as before partition, two
Standstill Agreements were signed on 20 December 1947 by the Chief
Engineers of East Punjab and West Punjab. These interim
arrangements were to expire on 31 st March 1948, after which East
Punjab started asserting its rights on its waters. It was on 1
April 1948 that the East Punjab Government in control of the head works
at Madhopur on the Ravi and at Ferozpur on the Sutlej, cut off water
supplies to the canals in Pakistan fed by these head works, after the
Standstill agreements expired on 31 March 1948.
In fact, East Punjab had formally notified
West Punjab on 29 March 1948 that the 'Standstill Agreements' would
expire on 31st March, and had accordingly invited the Chief Engineers
of West Punjab to Shimla for negotiating an agreement of resumption
water supplies. 12
According to Rushbrook Williams, the water supplies were cut because
"the canal colonies in Pakistan served by these head works did not pay
the standard water dues. The people incharge of the head works
were applying exactly the same kind of sanction that they would have
applied in undivided India - no canal dues, no water."13
The Chief Engineers
of the two Punjabs met in Shimla and on 18 April 1948 concluded two
agreements which were to take effect from the date of their
ratification by the Dominions of India and Pakistan. Finally at
the inter- Dominion Conference on 3 May 1948 at Delhi the matter came
up for discussion. It was on 4 May 1948 that an agreement was
reached after a meeting at Nehru's instance between the Indian Prime
Minister and Pakistan's Finance Minister, Ghulam Mohd. By the Delhi
Agreement of 4 May 1948, East Punjab agreed not to withhold water from
West Punjab without giving the latter time to tap alternative
sources. On its part West Punjab recognized "the natural anxiety
of the East Punjab."14
As regards the payment of seigniorage charges to East Punjab, the West
Punjab government agreed to deposit immediately in the Reserve Bank of
India."15 It
may be pointed out that the British Province of Punjab recovered,
before partition, from Bikaner State seigniorage charges for the supply
of water to the State in addition to proportionate maintenance costs
etc. of the Ferozepore headworks and of the feeder canal.16
East Punjab now wanted to
recover a similar charge for water supplied to West Punjab.
Though this agreement was not final, it did
provide some basis for dealing with the vexed problem. But soon
it was found that Pakistan was unwilling to stick to the agreement, as
it was seeking to use the Indus water dispute as a political tool in
the battle over Kashmir being fought at the United Nations.
Pakistan also sought to create anti-India hysteria in Pakistan over
this issue. As such Pakistan unilaterally abrogated the May 1948
Agreement saying that it was signed "under duress".17
Besides, Pakistan refused
to pay the dues to India even after a year of the agreement.18
Pakistan now asked
for a reference to the International Court of Justice for final
verdict, which was objected to by India. Pakistani media and
politicians launched a campaign over the issue of canal waters dispute
to create a scenario of serious crisis in Indo-Pakistani
relations. All along Pakistan's policy was to seek third party
adjudication, which India was opposing.
The Lilienthal Proposal and World Bank
Initiative
It was in this atmosphere of mutual distrust and contrived
tensions, that David E. Lilienthal, formerly Chairman of the Tenessess
Valley Authority and the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission visited India
and Pakistan in February 1951 on a supposedly private visit.
Before embarking upon this visit Lilienthal had met the then U.S.
President Truman, the U.S. Secretary of State, Dean Acheson, Pakistan's
Foreign Minister, M. Zafrulla Khan and Secretary General of Pakistan's
Delegation to the U.N., Muhammad Ali.19 While in India,
Lilienthal was guest of Prime Minister Nehru and he also held talks
with Sheikh Abdullah on Kashmir. In Pakistan, Lilienthal
discussed with Prime Minster Liaquat Ali Khan, Kashmir and the
"economic warfare" between India and Pakistan. Liaquat Ali was
reported to have told Lilienthal that "unless the Kashmir issue is
settled it is unreal to try to settle the issue about water or about
evacuees".20
On his return to America, Lilienthal wrote an article titled Another
"Korea" in the Making analysing the Indo-Pakistani relations. He
prefaced his article with a loaded comment : "India and Pakistan are on
the edge of war over which shall possess Kashmir - a fight the U.S.
might be forced to enter....The direct issue is whether the historic
region of Kashmir and Jammu shall be part of India or Pakistan.
On one of this disputed region's frontiers lies Red China, on another
Red Tibet. Along another frontier is Soviet Russia".21
Explaining the importance
of the Indus waters for ensuring food security to millions of people in
India and Pakistan, Lilienthal proposed that the canal waters dispute
could be solved by India and Pakistan by working out a program jointly
to develop and operate the Indus basin river system. He wrote :
"Jointly financed perhaps with World Bank help an Indus Engineering
Corporation, with representation by technical men of India, Pakistan
and the World Bank, can readily work out an operating scheme for
storing water wherever dams can best store it, and for diverting and
distributing water".22 Lilienthal,
who appeared to be concerned about the presence of Communist China and
Soviet Union on the borders of Kashmir, was hoping to become the head
of the proposed Indus Engineering Corporation.23 Whereas
Lilienthal sent
copies of his article to the Indian Ambassador and the Pakistani
Counsel on the water dispute, he also persued the proposal with the
U.S. State Department.
Interestingly around the same time, Eugene R.
Black, then President of the International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development, Washington World Bank and a close friend of David
Lilienthal24
became interested in the Lilienthal proposal. In September 1951,
World Bank formally offered its good offices to both India and Pakistan
to work out a solution of the Indus waters issue on the basis of
Lilienthal proposals. The World Bank offer was conditioned by the
'essential principle' that "the problem of development and use of Indus
Basin water resources should be solved on a functional and not a
political plan without relations to past negotiations and past claims,
and independently of political issues".25
Both countries accepted the suggestion after the World Bank President, Eugene Black personally net both the Indian and Pakistani Prime Ministers. By May 1952 the first of the long series of conferences opened at Washington which were continued at Karachi and Delhi. But it soon became clear that Lilienthal's proposal of a joint Indus Engineering Corporation could not be realised. Instead it was found necessary to replace the existing supplies from alternative sources. So in February 1954 the World Bank officals proposed to India and Pakistan, the division of rivers. "The three eastern rivers Ravi, Beas and Sutlej would be available for the exclusive use and benefit of India, after a specified transitionary period. The Western rivers Indus, Jhelum and Chenab would be available for the exclusive use and benefit of Pakistan, except for the insignificant volume of Jhelum flow presently used in Kashmir... Each country would construct the works located on its own territories which are planned for the development of the supplies. The costs of such works would be borne by the country to be benefitted thereby".26 Whereas India accepted the World Bank proposals, inspite of its sacrifices, Pakistan vacillated and accepted 'in principle' only after the Bank pressed her for a reply. In his letter of 22 March 1954 to the World Bank President, Prime Minister of India while conveying his general acceptance to the principles governing the Bank proposals as the basis of agreement stressed that : "the actual agreement which would be worked out with the assistance of the Bank authorities will naturally deal with number of details including the question of the small requirements of Jammu and Kashmir."27 On the other hand, Pakistan continued to ask for clarification of details and further technical studies, thereby taking several years in the negotiations.
India's acceptance of the World bank
proposals was based on the hope that in five years' time India would be
able to make use of the waters of the eastern rivers. This
was, however, frustrated by Pakistani procrastination. Pakistan
was seeking a comprehensive replacement-cum-development programme in
Pakistan involving high investment of about 1.12 billion US dollars.28
And in 1959
the World Bank USA and certain western countries became ready to foot
the bill for this huge construction programme in Pakistan, so that the
vexed canal waters dispute between India and Pakistan could be
solved. It was on 1 March 1960 that the World Bank made a public
announcement of the financial plan it had evolved for the replacement
and development works of the Indus system. It was estimated to
cost about 1000 million dollars partly in foreign exchange and partly
in local currencies. The Bank announced that the
requisite expenditure would be contributed by Australia, Canada, New
Zealand, Germany, United Kingdom, United States, the World Bank besides
the contributions by India and Pakistan. Ironically as it may
sound, the bulk of this financial plan was meant to be spent in
Pakistan 691 million dollars out of 747 millions of grants and loans
with India getting only 56 million dollars as loan for the Beas Dam, as
against Pakistan getting all her development underwritten by the Bank's
financial plan.29 Besides,
the World Bank press release did not mention about the additional U.S.
grant of 235 million dollars in local currency. 30 Yet,
India stuck to its
commitment to conclude the Indus Waters Treaty based on the World Bank
proposals. And the Treaty was duly signed on 19 September 1960 at
Karachi by Jawaharlal Nehru, the Prime Minister of India, President
Ayub Khan of Pakistan and W.A.B. Iliff of the World Bank.
The Treaty
The main features of the Treaty are as follows :31
(i) The waters of the three eastern rivers - the Ravi, the Beas and the Sutlej - would be available for unrestricted use by India, after a transition period.
(ii) The waters of the three western rivers-the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab - would be allowed to flow for unrestricted use by Pakistan except for some limited use such as a domestic use, b non-consumptive use, c agricultural use, d generation of hydro-electric power run-of-river-plants in Kashmir.
(iii) During the transition period of ten years, India would continue
to give Pakistan some supplies from the eastern rivers, in accordance
with detailed regulation set out in the Treaty. The period may be
extended at Pakistan's request up to a maximum of another three
years. If so extended, India would deduct from its contribution
Rs. 4.16 crores for one year's extension and Rs. 8.54 crores for two
years' extension and Rs. 13.13 crores if the extension is sought for
three years.
(iv) Pakistan would build works in the transition period to replace,
from the western rivers and other sources, waters she used to get in
her canals from the eastern rivers.
(v) Non-consumptive use, domestic use etc. would be permitted in all the rivers by both the countries, but such use should not in any way affect the flow of rivers and channels, to be used by the other party.
(vi) India would contribute in ten equal annual instalments the fixed sum pf Pounds Sterling 62,060,000 to the Indus Basin Development Fund towards the cost of replacement works in Pakistan.
(vii) Both countries have recognised their common interest in the optimum development of the rivers, and declared their intention to co - operate by mutual agreement to the fullest possible extent.
(viii) The tow countries would regularly exchange data regarding the
flow in and utilisation of waters of the rivers.
ix APermanent Indus Commission would be constituted with the
Commissioners for Indus Waters of the two countries- a post which
should be filled by a high-ranking engineer competent in the field of
hydrology and water use. Each Commissioner will be the
representative of his Government of consideration of all matters
arising out of the Treaty. The purpose and functions of the Indus
Commission would by "to establish and maintain cooperative arrangements
for the implementation of this Treaty and to promote cooperation in the
matter of development of the rivers".
(x) If the Indus Commission fails to reach agreement on any matter
pertaining to the Treaty it would be referred to a Neutral
Expert. If the difference is in the nature of a dispute and the
Netural Expert certifies it to be so, the matter would be dealt with by
the two Governments and might be referred to a Court of Arbitration.
(xi) Nothing contained in the Treaty, and nothing arising out of the execution thereof shall be construed as constituting a recognition or waiver whether tacit, by implication or otherwise of any rights or claims whatsoever of either of the parties.
Critical Review
The Indus Treaty was signed by Nehru in the fervent hope
of ushering all round improvement in India-Pakistan relations and
resolution of all outstanding problems including Kashmir. Perhaps
Nehru was impressed by Ayub's offer of joint defence with India made in
early 1959 in the wake of deteriorating India-China relations.32
Ayub's offer,
however, needed to be viewed in the light of Pakistan being a member of
SEATO and CENTO, which made him susceptible to western prescriptions
for regional peace and cooperation. At that time the U.S. and its
friendly western nations viewed the Communist Block - USSR and China,
as a greater threat. Although India did not accept the concept of joint
defence, it sought to improve relations with Pakistan by agreeing to
substantially pay for the cost of irrigation programme in Pakistan,
besides surrendering the use of three western rivers. India
treated the Indus waters issue as a technical and engineering
problem. On the other hand Pakistan exploited it as a political
weapon in her cold war against India. At the same time Pakistan
succeeded in extracting huge financial assistance of about one billion
dollars from the World Bank, USA and other western countries, using the
geopolitical environment in the region to its advantage.
Nehru went to Karachi on 19 September 1960 to sign the Treaty hoping to begin a new chapter in the history of Indo-Pak relations. Though the joint communique issued at the end of Nehru-Ayub talks on 23 September 1960, revealed little progress on Kashmir, both sides agreed to work for promotion of friendly and cooperative relations and resolve the outstanding differences. However, Pakistan did not hide its disappointment that there was no progress over Kashmir. The Pakistani press continued to harp on the theme of "free and impartial plebiscite to determine the choice of the people of Kashmir."33 On the other hand, Indian press highlighted the positive aspects of the joint communique. Times of India even suggested that, "in the interests of a lasting settlement this country may be prepared eventually to accept the status quo in the State and agree to slight changes in the present ceasefire line to make it a viable international frontier."34 Hardly a month had lapsed after Nehru's visit to Karachi, and President Ayub of Pakistan speaking at a public meeting in Muzaffrabad Pak occupied Kashmir in early October 1960 declared that "Pakistan could not trust India until the Kashmir question was settled and that the Pak army could never afford to leave the Kashmir issue unsolved for an indefinite period."35 In this way Indian hopes of building up mutual trust and confidence with Pakistan were belied. What followed is too well known to be repeated. Pakistan launched Operation Gibralter in 1965 to wrest Kashmir. There was yet another war in 1971 and ever since 1989 Pakistan has been engaged in deadly proxy war against India in Kashmir and elsewhere. And in 1999 India had to encounter the Pakistani armed intrusion in Kargil.
As such Nehru's assertion in the Lok Sabha on 30 November 1960 that "we purchased a settlement, if you like; we purchased peace to that extent and it is good for both countries",36 was not borne out by the subsequent events. Members of Parliament belonging to both the Congress, PSP and Jana Sangh pointed to the glaring mistakes committed in conclusion of this Treaty. Congress MPs from Pubjab and Rajasthan, Iqbal Singh and H.C. Mathur called the treaty disadvantageous to India stating that both their home states "had been badly let down". 37 Ashok Guha, another Congress Mp lamented that "interests of India had been sacrificed to placate Pakistan". Ashok Mehta, leader of the PSP in the Lok Sabha described it as a "peculiar treaty under which Pakistan, already a surplus area, would be unable to make full use of her share of the Indus Water and would have to allow it to flow into the sea. On the contrary, India after the fullest development of the water resources, would still be short of supplies".38 But Nehru's efforts of creating goodwill and understanding with Pakistan by giving concessions through the Indus Treaty, did not bear fruit. That Nehru himself had realised this soon after, is confirmed by N.D. Gulhati, who led the Indian delegation during the negotiations over Indus. Gulhati recalls : "When I called on the Prime Minister on 28th February 1961, my last day in office, in a sad tone he said, 'Gulhati, I had hoped that this agreement would open the way to settlement on other problems, but we are where we were".39
In retrospect, it can he stated that India was too generous to Pakistan, both in terms of allowing use of waters of western rivers and by making payment of more than 62 million Pounds Sterlingi.e. about 430 crores of rupees in current value to Pakistan. It is also surprising as to why World Bank advanced such disproportionate proposals to India,"particularly when the eastern rivers given to India carried 20 to 25 percent of the total flow of the Indus Basin as against the 75 to 80 percent in the three western rivers allocated to Pakistan".40 Out of the total annual flow of 168.4 million acre feet m.a.f of water in the Indus system of rivers, the total requirement for irrigation water was 96.36 m.a.f. for the entire cultivable area of the Indus basin, thereby leaving a surplus of 72.02 m.a.f. of water which would be going to the sea. Since the cultivable area on the three eastern rivers was 22.856 million acres, little less than on the western rivers 25.100 million acres, the mean annual supplies made available by the eastern rivers was only 32.8 m.a.f., that is 13.57 m.a.f. less than the actual water requirement of 46.37 m.a.f. In quite contrast to this, the mean annual flow in western rivers was 135.6 m.a.f., i.e. 85.59 m.a.f. more than its requirement of only 50.01 m.a.f. of water. It is quite intriguing as to why the Indian government delegation involved in the prolonged negotiations over Indus waters, agreed to much lower share of water available in the eastern rivers, particularly when the concerned officials were in know of the facts. 41 However, it appears that the Jammu and Kashmir government, particularly its irrigation and power development departments, had not done their homework to study and quantify the existing and future water requirements for irrigation, hydel power generation and other uses inside Jammu and Kashmir. As such the Indian delegation failed to secure the necessary safeguards in the Treaty for future consumption of water for hydel power purposes, excepting by run-of-the-river methods. Gulhati himself admits that "since no study had ever been made until then, of the development locally possible, above the rim stations, none of us had, at that time, any real idea of the quantum of future developments in the upper reaches of the Western Rivers. Nor did we have any idea of the irrigation from the Indus in Ladakh. As regards hydro-electric development we felt that, being a non-consumptive use, it was not covered by the Bank proposal which dealt only with irrigation uses".42 Moreover, it is not the number of rivers but quantum of water which was to be distributed. Besides, the World Bank did not include the Kabul river while dividing the six rivers among the two countries.
If we consider the internationally
accepted Helsinki Rules framed by the International Law Association
which postulate the equitable utilisation of waters of an international
drainage basin taking into consideration various factors such as
the extent of the drainage area, hydrology of the basin, economic and
social needs of each basin state, population dependent on the waters
of the basin, then India did not get a fair deal. According
to S.K. Garg, who has computed the respective entitlement of India and
Pakistan on the basis of the population, drainage areas, length of
rivers and culturable area, India should have been given 42.8% share in
the waters of the Indus Basin, as against the actual allocation of 20
to 25%, flowing in the three eastern rivers.43
It may be worthwhile to mention that
post-Soviet Central Asia has also been faced with the problem of water
distribution. Upstream countries- Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,
argue that "the long term projections of water usage need to take into
account the dynamics of population growth and the resultant necessity
to increased water use to meet drinking water, agricultural, industrial
and other needs."44
Kyrgyzstan has been insisting on its right to increased water use for
hydropower generation and has been demanding compensation from the
downstream countries for the water resources provided for irrigation.45
In fact, Kyrgystan
adopted in June 2001 the law on inter-State use of water bodies, water
resources and water management facilities in Kyrgyzstan, which
declared "the foreign policy of Kyrgyzstan based on the principle of
paid water use in water relations with other countries."46
An Inter State Commission
for Water Coordination ICWC representing the five Central Asian
Republics, which was established in 1992-93 following an agreement
signed in Almaty on 18 February 1992, has been regulating the
allocation consumption and exchange of water for natural gas, coal,
oil for their monetary equivalent. For instance, as per
existing agreements, Kyrgyzstan released from Toktogul reservoir to
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan 3.25 ckm of water for each country in
exchange of 1.1 billion kWh of power either electricity or coal
valued at 22 million dollars from Kazakhstan and 400 million kWh of
power electricity plus 500 million cubic meters of natural gas valued
at 48.5 million dollars per year from Uzbekistan.47
Besides, agreements
were worked out of supporting the operation of Toktogul reservoir in
Kyrgyzstan in the irrigation mode out of compensation payable to
Kyrgyzstan. All Parties were agreed to be a guarantor for
compensation and monetary exchanges.
View From Kashmir
It becomes clear that the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir
in spite of being the upstream area, has suffered due to restrictions
placed by the Treaty on the unhindered usage of its river waters of
Jhelum Chenab and Indus. The irony of the matter is that the
State being rich in its hydel resources has been facing a perennial
problem of shortage of hydro-electric power, more particularly during
winter months and due to the dry spell in the valley. Though the
State government's official estimates put the total hydel power
potential of the State at 15,000 MW, the Center for Monitoring Indian
Economy CMIE has reported it to be at 7487 MW which constitutes about
9 per cent of the total hydel power potential of the country.48
Since the Treaty has
placed curbs on the construction of storage reservoirs which could
ensure the provision of requisite water flow, all power projects in the
State are to be run-of-the-river type. This not only raises the
construction cost of the projects but also affects adversely the
cost-effectiveness of power generation from these projects. Cost
of run-of-the-river projects using small head fall is reported to be
about 75 per cent higher than hydel projects using high head fall.49
Thus "the
generating capacity of all run-of-the-river projects falls by about 65
to 75 per cent during winter because the water level in different
rivers gets depleted substantially."50 These high cost
hydel projects generate electricity much below their installed
capacity. For instance, run-of-the-river Uri Hydel Project built
at a cost of more than 800 million US dollars has been producing
maximum of only 200 MW in winter as against the 480 MW installed
capacity.51 As
such the J&K State is unable to meet its demand of about 700 MWs,
even after it has been importing 230 MWs of power from the northern
grid.52 The State
accounts for only 0.9 per cent of the hydel power generated in the
country.53 The
shortage of power in the State has not only been causing problems for
domestic consumption, but has also been inhibiting the growth of
industry and agriculture. During the past forty years, since the
Indus Treaty was signed, there has been sizeable increase in the
State's population and standards of living. Simultaneously, the State
has witnessed a big leap in demand for electricity. As such there
have been fundamental changes in the ground situation, so far as the
actual power requirement of the State for domestic, agricultural and
industrial uses, is concerned.
Similarly, work on the construction of Tulbul
Navigation Project started by the J&K government in 1984 in order
to raise the level of water in the Wullar lake for facilitating
transport on the river Jhelum, was stopped in 1988 after India accepted
Benazir Bhutto's demands and stopped construction work at the Tulbul
project.54
Despite several rounds of talks held with Pakistan during the past 17
years, the issue remains unresolved. Whereas the Tulbul Project
would not diminish or change the flow of water to Pakistan, it would
keep the Jhelum river navigable for a considerable stretch thereby
bringing economic benefits to the people in the valley. This project
could provide a cheap mode of transport to the fruit growers in north
Kashmir and thus transform the region's economy. The existing dam
in the Salal project is full of silt upto three fourths of its 400 feet
height, which needs to flushed out urgently in order to let the project
run. India had earlier agreed to Pakistan-dictated terms on the Salal
project, which led to very high siltation levels affecting power
generation sharply.
Given its success in forcing India to abandon
the construction work on Tulbul Navigation Project in 1987 and also in
obstructing the construction of anti-siltation sluices at the Salal
Hydel Project, Pakistan has now created a controversy over the
construction of the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab river. The Rs.4000
crore Baglihar Dam project is being constructed by the Jammu and
Kashmir government since the year 2000, and over Rs. 2500 crore have
already been spent. This hydel project which has an installed
capacity of 450 MW and is expected to be completed by the year 2007 55,will
go a long way in
alleviating the problem of power shortage in Jammu and Kashmir. Though
the Baglihar project is "run-of-the river project as provided under the
Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan sought to scuttle this project by
creating a controversy over its design, pondage, height of the dam and
spillways,."56
The authorities of J&K Power Development
Corporation JKPDC, responsible for executing this project,
point out the Pakistan is making unnecessary noises without
"concretizing its objections or making them specific".57
Ghulam Hassan Rather,
Managing Director and Abdul Ahad Malik, Chief Engineer of a JKPDC
revealed that the basic data of the Project was sent to Pakistan as
early as in 1992 and work on the project was started in January
2000 after making modification in the design. "They want us to
provide a low weir instead of a dam, but that would go against the
basic design. And if the spillways were kept ungated, as Pakistan
wants, the silt load would block the functioning of the machine.
In about 18 or 20 years the project will become redundant."58
Baglihar engineers
point out that spillways with channels are constructed to remove the
silt deposited i the dam and have nothing to do with controlling the
Chenab waters. 59
Indian contention is that building of a 470 ft. high dam with fully
equipped gated spillway will not affect the flow of the river into
Pakistan. Besides, in the light of its experience in Salal
Project, which is suffering due to deposition of large amount of silt,
India can not afford to repeat the same mistake in Baglihar.
It is, therefore, understandable that there
has been growing concern and anger in Jammu and Kashmir over the
negative consequences of the Indus Treaty for the State. Both the
official and public circles in J&K State have been pleading for a
review of this Treaty, so that the legitimate water requirements of
J&K State for hydel power generation, deepening of rivers for
navigation purposes, erecting protective bunds for floods and building
adequate water reserves for irrigation are fulfilled.
Environmental considerations also demand that the locally available
hydel resources be utilised to the optimum to preserve and to maintain
the deteriorating ecosystem in the State. Already, various water
bodies particularly the famous Dal lake, Wullar lake and other aquatic
systems have shrunk, thereby causing alarm.
Yet another associated problem has been the
revenue loss of millions of rupees to the J&K State, as a result of
the floating of timber logs from Jhelum and Chenab across the LoC into
Pak-occupied Kashmir. This author learnt from some responsible
officials of some insurance companies operating in J&K State, that
the local timber merchants have been claiming millions of rupees of
insurance compensation on lieu their timber losses on this account.
And in Pakistan itself, experience has shown that its portion of Indus basin has been suffering form acute problem of water logging and salinity due to excess availability of Indus waters and consequent canal seepage and percolation of excess amount of water. According to a study, in Punjab alone, "5 million ha have already gone out of cultivation due to salinity caused by water logging, 690,000 ha are affected to a lesser degree."60 Pakistani experts point out that Pakistan has made heavy investment in gigantic projects like Tarbela and Mangle dams, barrages, link canals etc. whereas projects of small irrigation, drainage, soil and water conservation remained on low priority. They believe that "rational use of water on three crops - wheat, cotton and sugarcane alone would save Pakistan about 5.6 MAF."61 Experts in Pakistan are forthright in ascribing the so called problem of water shortage in Pakistan to inefficient usage of water and distortions in its socio-economic policies. According to them, "with more than 1300 cubic metres per person available annually, Pakistan is by hydrological definitions, not a water stressed country."62 They argue that the water balance in the Indus Basin was massively destabilized due to addition of "more water to the eco-system than its natural drainage potential", which resulted in desertification through water logging and salinity. 63 Besides, there is the unresolved issue of inter-provincial discord over distribution of water.
To conclude, Indian efforts to buy peace from
Pakistan by giving concessions through the Indus Waters Treaty failed
miserably. Indus water dispute was and is sought to be used by
Pakistan as a political tool in the Indo-Pak dual over Kashmir. All
along Pakistan's policy has been to avoid any direct bilateral
settlement with India and to seek third party intervention. The
manner in which the Treaty was negotiated and concluded, lends and
impression of external pressure group network exerting their influence
since huge investments were involved in the construction of big dams
and canals. It is a reflection on the functioning of the
World Bank which was influenced by the Cold War politics in the region
and by the interested construction lobbies. It also reminds that
outside mediation or arbitration in bilateral disputes between India
and Pakistan, as was done by the World Bank in this case, would not
lead to a lasting and positive solution based on principles of
equitability and just distribution of resources. The Treaty
which has been in force for more than 45 years, has added to the
economic woes of the people of upstream Jammu and Kashmir State by
depriving them of the legitimate right to full usage of Jhelum, Chenab
and Indus waters for hydro-electric generation, irrigation, navigation
and other purposes. As such there is sufficient ground for
reviewing the Indus Treaty, so that it is turned into a resilient one
after making necessary modifications and adjustments, which can take
care of the substantial changes in the ground situation in Jammu and
Kashmir.
That Pakistan has secured third party
intervention the World Bank to resolve its dispute with India over
the Baglihar hydro project is part of its strategy to internationalize
and politicize the issue. It marks a complete deviation from the
path of the "Composite Dialogue" process agreed to by both India and
Pakistan to resolve all outstanding issue including
Kashmir. Pakistan's objections to the construction of Baglihar
dam are more political than a technical one . Pakistan's
contention that this dam can inflict damage to Pakistan controlled
territory downstream by withholding water or flooding does not hold
good, as in that event two mega projects-Salal and Sawalkot, which are
built downside within the Indian territory, would get flooded and
damaged. Baglihar project is situated about 120 kms. inside of
the LOC in Jammu and Kashmir. Indian Water Resources Minister,
Priyaranjan Dasmunsi soon after his visit to Baglihar project site in
June 2005, affirmed that "the project design fully conforms to the
provisions of the treaty."64
Interestingly, Pakistan is raising the height
of Manala dam by another 40 feet to ensure more power and water
for Punjab at the cost of the people of Mirpur in Pakistan occupied
Kashmir PoK. Similarly, Islamabad is planning to build the
Skardu dam in 'Northern Areas' of PoK, to ensure added water supply and
electricity to Punjab in spite of the protests from the people of
Giligt and Baltistan. Yet, Pakistan is not acceding to the water and
electricity requirements of that part of Kashmir. Pakistan, which
is never tired of talking of human rights of Kashmiris, is thus denying
the people of Jammu and Kashmir, their legitimate right to use water
from their own rivers.
References
1. See, Arun Joshi, "J&K to Denounce Indus Water", Hindustan Times, 18, December 1998.
2. See, Praveen Swami, A Treaty Questioned, Frontline, 10 May 2002, pp.24-35.
3. Rushbrook Williams, "The Indus Canals Water Dispute,"Leader, Allahabad, 5 June 1955. S.K. Garg, International and Interstate River Water Disputes New Delhi, 1999, p. 79. N.D. Gulhati, Indus Water Treaty: An Exercise in International Mediation, Bombay, Allied 1973, pp.18,24.
4. S.K. Garg, International and Interstate River Water Disputes, p.79.
5. Kaiser Bengali, Editor, The Politics of Managing Water Islamabad, 2003, p.xxii.
6. Ibid.,p.xxiii.
7. Rushbrook Williams,op cit.
8. N.D. Gulhati, op cit, p.39.
9. Ibid. p.59.
10 Ibid.
11Rushbrook Williams, op cit.
12 N.D. Gulhati, op cit, pp. 64-65.
13. Rushbrook Williams, op cit.
14. N.D. Gulhati, op cit. p.69.
15. Ibid.
16. Ibid p. 68.
17 Sisir Gupta, "The Indus Water Treaty", 1960. Foreign Affairs Reports, Vol.9, No. 12, December 1960.
18 Ibid.
19. N.D. Gulhati, op cit. p. 92.
20. Ibid. p. 93.
21. David Lilienthal, "Another "Korea" in the Making ", Colliers Magazine, 4 August 1951
22. Ibid.
23. N.D. Gulhati, op cit. p. 445.
24. G.T. Keith Pitman, "The Role of the World Bank in Enhancing Cooperation and Resolving Conflict on International
Watercourses : The Case of the Indus Basin", In International Water Cources : Enhancing Cooperation and Managing Conflict. Edited by M.A. Salman and Laurence Boission de Chazournes. Washington, World Bank Technical Paper No. 414, p. 159.
25. Ibid,p.160.
26. Gulhati, op. cit,, p. 137.
27. Cited in ibid., p. 147.
28. A.G.T. Keith Pitman, op.cit., p.161.
29. Gulhati, op.cit., pp.277-278.
30. Ibid.
31. For full text and annexures see Ibid., pp.373-410.
32. Dawn, 25 April 1959.
33. Ibid., 19 September 1960.
34. Times of India, 30 September 1960.
35. Dawn, 6 October 1960.
36. Cited in Indian Express, 1 December 1960.
37. Ibid.
38. Ibid.
39. Gulhati, op.cit., p.345.
40. S.K. Garg, op cit., p.85.
41. A.N. Khosla, former Chairman of the Central Water and Power Commission who was responsible for water resources development including the Indus dispute, published details of the Indus Basin and water flow in various Indus rivers two years before the agreement was signed. See his "Development of the Indus River System: An Engineering Approach", India Quarterly, Vol. 14, No.3, July-Sept. 1958. pp.234-253.
42. Gulhati, op.cit.,p.149.
43. S.K. Garg, op.cit., p.85.
44. U.N., Strengthening Cooperation for Rational and Efficient use of Water and Energy Resources in Central Asia New York, 2004, p.55.
45. Ibid., pp.53-54.
46. Ibid., p.56.
47. USAID, Central Asia Mission, Energy and Water Round Table: Analysis and Preparation for September 8-12, 1997 Meeting, 22 August 1997.
48. Dost Mohammad and A.S. Bhat, Problems of Power Sector Development. In Shri Prakash and G.M. Shah, eds., Towards Understanding the Kashmir Crisis, Delhi, 2002, p.175.
49. Dost Mohammad and A.S. Bhat, Ibid.
50. Ibid., p.176.
51. Ibid. See also, Shujaat Bukhari, "Serious Power Shortage Stalks J&K", The Hindu, 18 January 2000.
52. Ibid. Rashid Ahmad, "Incessant Power Cut takes Valley into Dark Age", Pioneer, 21 January 2000.
53. CMIE, India's Energy Sector, September 1996, cited in Dost Mohammad and A.S. Bhat, op.cit., p.177.
54. Bharat Bhushan, "India-Pakistan Talks: Tulbul Navigation Project", Hindustan Times, 5 November 1998.
55. G.S. Dhillon, The Threatening Tides of Baglihar, Indian Express, New Delhi, 28 February 2005.
56. Ibid.
57. Yusuf Jameel, Baglihar - Pak has Problem with Design, Asian Age, New Delhi, 6 February 2005.
58. Ibid.
59. Luv Puri, "Swiss Expert Begins Site Inspection", The Hindu, 3 October 2005.
60. Masahiro Murakami, Managing Water for Peace in the Middle East: Alternative Strategies. Tokyo, United Nations University Press, 1995, p.52.
61. Manzoor Ahmed, "Issues in Water Policy Reforms", in Kaiser Bengali, op.cit,pp.73-78
62. Kaiser Bengali,op.cit.,p.xiii.
63. Ibid.,p.xvi.
64. The Hindu, 19 June 2005.