Military Suffers Without A War
The October 2005 earthquake was the first time that the Pakistan
army suffered major losses without fighting a war. Reports in Pakistani
media have stated that the army lost about 3,000
of its soldiers in the earthquake. These estimates appear to be
conservative as the 'army to civilian' ratio especially in the border
areas are high. Though the actual figure may never be known, reports
about destruction of the army's infrastructure in the region indicate
that the losses may be higher. The Pakistan Army’s brigade
headquarters and its allied installations in Bagh and the military
infrastructure at several forward and rear positions in different parts
of PoK were devastated by the earthquake. A number of military
buildings housing offices, residential accommodation and other military
facilities in the brigade headquarters were completely destroyed. The
military camp in Harri Gahal and Arja, situated on the way to Bagh from
Muzaffarabad, suffered massive destruction. The Pakistan army’s Nisar
Camp, situated close to the Neelum river in Muzaffarabad and the civil
and military hospital in the city were flattened by the earthquake.
Another concern for Pakistan arising out of the earthquake was that the
landslides could have shifted thousands of landmines planted on both
sides of the LoC by the two armies. Though both armies have maps of
the mines planted in the region, they would be rendered useless due to
the landslides. The fact that Pakistan allowed US-led NATO forces to
deploy for three months in the earthquake devastated region clearly
indicated that the Pakistani army was not in a position to undertake
relief operations on its own. A major portion of Pakistan's military
assets are currently tied down in anti-terrorism and anti-insurgency
operations along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and the province of
Balochistan respectively. This further constrained the army's ability
to undertake relief operations.
Pakistan's unfounded fear of an Indian military offensive led its army
to pay more attention to rebuild frontline positions than to rescue
trapped civilians in PoK. According to The Telegraph newspaper (report
quoted in the 16 October 2005 edition of Pakistani newspaper Daily
Times), civilians in the PoK region were angry with the army for not
giving priority to rescue and relief. The report quoted an insider as
saying that although the Pakistan government knew that India would not
undertake a military offensive in light of the human disaster, in the
first few days the Pakistan army used every resource to restore its
defence line because they did not want to leave it vulnerable. The
losses suffered by the army and the unfounded fears generated by the
earthquake have apparently influenced Musharraf to lay emphasis on the
demilitarisation and self governance proposals. Musharraf had
earlier talked about another set of proposals for resolving the Kashmir
issue. At that time, Musharraf had talked about dividing Jammu and
Kashmir into seven regions, demilitarising these regions and then
changing their status.
The Demilitarisation and Self
Governance Proposals
In an interview to an Indian television channel (CNN-IBN) on 14
January, General Pervez Musharraf disclosed that he had communicated
his ideas on demilitarisation and self governance in Kashmir to the
Indian leadership long ago. He also said that the apparent Indian
reluctance to respond to his ideas forced him to make these proposals
public. Musharraf also rejected statements made by Indian officials
that his ideas were not being discussed through back channels.
Musharraf disclosed in that interview, that he had directly discussed
with the Indian leadership his ideas of 'joint management' and
demilitarisation of the three Kashmiri cities of Baramullah, Kupwara
and Srinagar. Musharraf said, "I have given these proposals to the
Indian leaders. I have done this through the back channels. All of
them, in detail. Some even written. But there is no response … no
counter-proposal. That disappoints me. And I think we reached a stage
where we have to come out in the open. And, therefore, I am doing this.
Let it be in the open. Let the people of India and let the people of
Pakistan debate it. Because I think the leadership doesn’t want to
debate it in the open.” However, analysts say that the three cities
mentioned by Musharraf for demilitarisation are the militancy-infested
regions. It is in these areas that counter militancy operations by the
Indian forces have produced results by cutting down on the infiltration
and supply lines from across the border. Moreover, with the Pakistani
army positions in PoK suffering destruction, the army is reportedly in
a position to provide support to the militant outfits whether in terms
of training camps, arms or assistance in infiltrating into Indian
Kashmir. The LoC ceasefire, holding since November 2003, and
international focus on the region in the post earthquake period have
reduced the Pakistani army's ability to undertake support operations
for militant outfits like before.
Less than two weeks after the earthquake, Musharraf had offered to open
the LoC in order to facilitate Kashmiris from both sides to know the
welfare of their relatives. On 22 October 2005, India and Pakistan
agreed to open at least three sectors along the LoC for relief
operations. The sectors included Kaman near Aman Setu in Uri, Tithwal
in Tangdhar and Chakan Da Bagh in Poonch. From 7 November onwards,
India and Pakistan opened five crossing points along the LoC after
officials from both countries reached an agreement in Islamabad. The
agreed crossing points included Nauseri-Tithwal; Chakoti-Uri;
Hajipur-Uri; Rawalakot-Poonch and Tattapani-Mendhar. Speaking to Arab
News on 30 October 2005, Musharraf observed that the earthquake had
provided an opportunity for both sides to move forward on the Kashmir
issue. He also said “I am for demilitarization. If they agree to that,
we will too. We are very flexible. We are absolutely open to moving
forward to the ultimate solution. You can’t clap with one hand; you can
only clap with two.”
Military balance underlines
Musharraf's proposals
Observers say that Musharraf's statement clearly indicated an
urgency to address the military imbalance created in the Kashmir region
due to the earthquake. Reports indicated that during relief operations,
Indian army personnel had crossed the LoC to help the Pakistani
soldiers who were trapped due to the earthquake. Though Pakistan later
denied these reports, Indian officials confirmed them saying that it
was easy to access several areas in PoK from Indian Kashmir while the
destruction in PoK had made reaching Pakistani positions along the LoC
difficult. Though it is difficult to establish the authenticity of
these reports, analysts say that Pakistan should have set aside its
strategic interests to facilitate relief to the Kashmiris in PoK.
However, subsequent statements by Pakistan indicated that Islamabad had
rejected the idea of Indian troops undertaking relief operations in
PoK. The apprehension at the highest levels in Pakistan was clearly
that the losses suffered by the army would be exposed. Given the
international focus in the post earthquake period, observers say that
Pakistani fears of an Indian military offensive were completely
unfounded. Many more people could have been saved if the Pakistan
government had allowed Indian troops to undertake relief operations.
Speaking on the issue of self governance, Musharraf said that the
Northern Areas under Pakistani control could also be considered in the
final settlement of the dispute. Musharraf also said that he would
consider introducing the same self governance in PoK that he had
conveyed for the Indian Kashmir. Though Musharraf did not elaborate on
his ideas, he said the details of what self-governance constitutes
would have to be worked out by India, Pakistan and Kashmiris. However,
he said that such an arrangement would be somewhere between autonomy
and independence. Chairman of the moderate faction of All Parties
Hurriyat Conference Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, who met General Musharraf in
January 2006, echoed the latter's views and ruled out
independence as an option. The Mirwaiz said that his party supported
the idea of demilitarisation and self governance as steps towards
resolving the Kashmir issue in accordance with the aspirations of the
Kashmiri people. However, the hardliners including Syed Ali Shah
Geelani and outfits like the Hizbul Mujahideen have criticised
Musharraf's ideas as a sell-out to India. Pakistan's political parties,
including the six-party Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal religious alliance,
have accused Musharraf of showing flexibility without any concessions
from India. While it is clear that Musharraf has roped in the moderate
Hurriyat to follow his ideas, he faces a difficult task to make the
hardliners fall in line.
