Pak-Afghan turmoil will spill over into Kashmir
22 February 2005
The Daily Times
Daily Times Monitor
Washington DC: The risk of war in South Asia would remain 'fairly high' over the next 15 years where the threat of a major conflict between India and Pakistan would 'overshadow' all other regional issues, America's National Intelligence Council (NIC) has warned, reported the Press Trust of India (PTI) on Tuesday. In its forecast of global trends over the next 15 years, the NIC, representing 15 spy agencies of the United States, including the CIA, said that continued turmoil in Afghanistan and Pakistan would spill over into Kashmir and other areas of the subcontinent, prompting Indian leaders to take more 'aggressive pre-emptive and retaliatory actions'. 'India's conventional military advantage over Pakistan will widen as a result of New Delhi's superior economic position. India will also continue to build up its ocean-going navy to dominate Indian Ocean transit routes used for delivering Persian Gulf oil to Asia. The decisive shift in conventional military power in India's favour over the coming years potentially will make the region more volatile and unstable,' the council said, according to the PTI. The council said both India and Pakistan would see weapons of mass destruction as a strategic imperative and would continue to amass nuclear warheads and build a variety of missile delivery systems.